This post isn't strictly related to silk ties, but it's about another topic close to men's hearts. Beating the odds.

Wouldn't it be great if you had an "I bet you..." wager that worked the vast majority of the time and people always took you up on it? Well let me explain the 30 birthdays rule.

I was once asked in an interview what the odds were of taking 30 random people and two of them having the same birthday. At that time I was 21 years old, and hadn't spent 13 years trading stocks, but I now know that the odds are more than 70% (and i didn't get the job!). 

Nobody believes this! It's almost impossible for people to conceive and the maths is way too long to explain here. However, I have bet numerous people over the years and only lost this bet once! It was also the favourite bet of one of the worlds greatest gamblers Amarillo Slim, who once used it to bet Evil Kenevil (they called 30 random taxis to ask drivers their birthdays). Slim won.

Don't believe me? Think of 30 celebrities and look up their birthdays on Wikipedia. The odds are that in the six nations last week, each match had players on the pitch with the same birthday. 

So how do say thank you for this almost limitless piece of wealth creation? Look good when you're taking people's money and buy a handmade silk tie from Reef Knots!

Patrick Dudley-Williams